WP7. Integrating, predicting and providing decision-making tools
Distribution maps of tree communities or tree species are usually modelled using environmental envelopes based on bioclimatic variables, e.g. evapotranspiration or rainfall patterns. Such models assume that the observed distribution patterns fit with contemporary environment conditions. However, at a given time, some species may not have occupied their potential niche yet.
Activities
- Model environmental envelopes based on climatic variables, soil water and light availability (quantified from disturbance) patterns; we will confront them with species functional traits and ongoing development of tree-community types (WP2, WP3, WP5, WP6) to test whether potential niches are occurring or not.
- Apply the biogeochemistry model BIOME4 to simulate the potential vegetation corresponding to present-day conditions (resp. past conditions) of rainfall patterns and water availability, and compare it with observed contemporary tree communities (resp. past communities, WP2, WP4).
- At last, we will use envelopes models and BIOME4 to project vegetation changes according to contrasted scenarios of climate change (SRES scenarios of IPCC) and anthropogenic change. Data to quantify anthropogenic change will be provided by the FORAF consortium, which has been commissioned by CBFP/COMIFAC donators to predict socio-economic changes (demography, transport, energy, external drivers) in the Congo Basin until 2050.
Expected results
- Test if present tree communities and species are in equilibrium with present environmental factors and disturbances.
- Estimate the resilience and response time of these tree communities and species.
- Predict the sensitivity of species and tree communities based on contrasted scenarios of climate and/or anthropogenic changes.
- Test the core hypothesis (water availability vs light availability).
- Express these results in decision-making tools.
7 Apr 2009